Estimation of rail renewal period in small radius Curves: A data and mechanics integrated approach

Abstract This paper presents a data and mechanics integrated approach (DMIA) to analyze small-radius rail life caused by both severe rail defects and excessive rail wear. First, the Archard wear model, as a mechanics-based model, is adopted to calculate the wear growth chart under different radii. Second, based on the growth chart, the observed over-threshold rail lifetime is adjusted to estimate the lifetime when it reaches the wear threshold. Third, considering the influence of different curve radii and the segment length, an accelerated failure time (AFT) model, as a data-driven model, is used to analyze the heterogeneity of the corrected measurement data. A survival probability is obtained with increasing gross tonnage for different curve radii. Finally, the expected MGT is calculated for rail defect & rail wear-based renewal for curves with different radii, and the obtained values are compared with the corresponding values in the existing standard.