Bedside Risk-Scoring Model for Predicting 6-Week Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Undergoing Endoscopic Band Ligation for Acute Variceal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB. METHODS Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n=1,373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n=200). RESULTS On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of beta-blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (p<0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (p<0.001) and validation (p<0.001) cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.