Assessing the effects of ecological engineering on carbon storage by linking the CA-Markov and InVEST models

Abstract Ecological engineering has become an essential tool in efforts to address environmental crises, improve human well-being, and achieve sustainability. However, efficient assessment of changes resulting from ecological engineering remains a challenge. In this study, we evaluated the effects of ecological engineering on carbon storage in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in semi-arid northwestern China by linking the CA-Markov and InVEST models. Firstly, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate land use/cover change (LUCC) following the implementation of ecological engineering programs. Then, the InVEST model was adopted to assess changes in carbon storage due to LUCC. The results showed that ecological engineering could increase carbon storage by 10.27 Tg from 2015 to 2029 by increasing the proportion of land cover types with higher carbon storage capacity. The relative error of the linked model was 0.22%, indicating that the linked model was highly applicable in assessments of the effects of ecological engineering on carbon storage in the study area. This study will provide a reference for guiding ecological engineering efforts.