The potential for energy conservation in the United States

The period of high oil prices between 1973 and 1985 was traumatic in the United States, as it was also in the rest of the world. It was also instructive in showing the kinds of adaptation that could occur rapidly in a very large industrialized economy. During the period, energy use remained essentially constant while the economy continued to grow. The efficiency of energy use, as indicated by the ratio of energy consumption to gross domestic product, increased by 24 percent. Since 1985 there has been little further improvement in energy efficiency. Can this kind of improvement in efficiency be repeated, and if so, what can make it happen? A number of energy analysts have recently made projections for the next 20 years. The projections all indicate steady increases of about 1 percent per year in the level of energy use. Since these projections assumed that gross domestic product will increase by about 2.3 percent per year, the implication is that energy efficiency is expected to increase slowly during the next two decades.