PREDICTION OF LAKE RESPONSE TO INDUCED CIRCULATION

ABSTRACT The outcome of any lake restoration project depends on numerous variables: e.g., lake morphometry, initial water quality, composition of the biological community, and engineering specifications of the restoration technique. Consequently, a variety of lake responses to restoration attempts can be expected, ranging from complete success to at least partial failure. For example, artificial circulation has improved water quality in many cases, but has often caused adverse ecological impacts, such as increased turibidity or nuisance algal blooms. The benefits of lake restoration can be realized only through accurate prediction of lake responses to alternative management schemes or experimental manipulations. Numerical classification of previous case history data can be used to enhance this predictive capability and to refine lake restoration techniques. By applying Mulitple Discriminant Analysis to case histories of artificial circulation, we defined the critical attributes of a successful restoration...