Modelo de adicción racional: un análisis al consumo de cerveza en la región junín, 2000-2019 [Rational addiction model: an analysis of beer consumption in the Junín region, 2000-2019]

The addiction model shows that the decisions of individuals are rational and operate under dynamic patterns linked to time. Past beer consumption conditions present consumption and this, in turn, that of the future. This sequence has been called the social paradigm of choice. The empirical results allege that beer consumption in the Junin region is addictive; In addition, current consumption is more sensitive to past consumption than to the future, because the individual has an almost perfect forecast of the future (certainty). With regard to shocks, permanent short-term price drops from now on to cause contemporary beer consumption will increase by 351 ml; on the other hand, the long-term permanent price drops from the moment t allow said consumption to increase by 3,462 liters, ceteris paribus.