Actual versus ‘Natural’ Rates of Suicide: Evidence from the USA

Abstract This paper employs a high dimensional variable selection technique to select a subset of suicide determinants from 167 potential factors, which are then used to estimate ‘natural’ suicide rates for US states by least squares dummy variables. Over the period 2005-2017, all states are found to have a non-zero and positive natural suicide rate, below their respective actual average rate. Higher actual rates suggest deterioration in socioeconomic conditions; inaccessible and unaffordable mental health care for certain sections of the population and inadequate implementation of measures to identify and reduce suicidal mortality. Evidence-informed policies aiming for zero suicide target could draw inspiration from exemplar states, to direct resources towards states with greater relative differences between actual average and natural suicide rates.