Avalanche Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment in Iceland

A number of avalanche accidents have occurred in Icelandic towns since urbaniz- ation started in the late 19 th century. In the year 1995, 34 people were killed in avalanche acci- dents in two villages in the northwestern part of Iceland. Most of the victims were inside houses that were located outside of hazard zones according to the hazard maps at that time. These acci- dents led to a complete review of the hazard mapping methods in Iceland, as well as the way to think about acceptable level of avalanche risk in settled areas. New laws and regulations were conducted where the acceptable level of risk was defined as 0.2 of 10,000 when looking at the annual probability of death for individuals in houses. A new met- hodology was developed for hazard mapping, based on a combination of physical models and statistical methods. Today, new hazard maps displaying isorisk lines have been made for most urban areas with considerable level of avalanche risk, and avalanche hazard is being evaluated for rural areas and ski operations. The latest development of the methodology focuses on the systematic usage of 2D avalanche models in hazard mapping.