Energy and household expenditure patterns. Volume 1. Residential energy demand. Final report

This study analyzes and projects long-term trends in the pattern of US household expenditures and examines the energy-consumption implications of those trends. A time-series analysis of household expenditures relies both on dynamic and systems formulations, and is supplemented by cross-sectional findings from consumer budget studies as well as by policy and technological considerations. The energy requirements of a projected household bill of goods were determined by the adaptation of results from a companion input-output study. Although personal consumption expenditures - in constant-dollar terms - are projected at a bit over a 2-1/2 percent average annual growth rate to the year 2000, the associated direct and indirect energy requirements are estimated to rise by only 0.6 percent yearly. This significant slowdown in energy growth stems from the effect of both the changing composition of personal consumption expenditures as well as falling energy-per-dollar coefficients for a wide range of expenditure categories. The preponderant share - about two-thirds - of US primary energy consumption is attributable to the direct and indirect demands of consumers. Thus, the findings of this study suggest the likelihood of a significant slowdown in growth of the nation's overall energy consumption.