Forecasting the pattern and pace of Fagus forest expansion in Majella National Park, Italy

ABSTRACT Question: Can the pattern and pace of spontaneous Fagus forest expansion from 1975 to 2003 be accurately detected with mid-resolution satellite imagery? Can the historical Fagus expansion be modelled on the basis of environmental predictors? If so, where are the highest probabilities for future Fagus expansion? What are the implications for park management? Location: Majella National Park, Italy, > 1000 m a.s.l.; municipalities of S. Eufemia and Pacentro. Methods: Fagus cover change was detected by overlaying three classified sequential satellite images. Historical Fagus expansion was related to environmental variables using ordinary logistic and autologistic regression models. Fagus expansion probabilities were generated with the best predictive model. Results: From 1975 to 2003 Fagus advanced into abandoned farmland and subalpine pastures from the contiguous, mid-altitudinal Fagus forest and from Fagus outliers, at a rate of 1.2 % per year. Substantial spatial and temporal variations in expansi...