Spatial and transient modelling of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in a Sahelian landscape under semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso

Abstract Sahelian landscapes have gone through rapid changes over the past decades under high pressure from an ever-growing population, climate hazards and land degradation. Understanding drivers of change and forecasting LULC dynamics in time and space are critical for sustainable land management. This research aimed at analyzing LULC patterns and forecasting future changes in the landscape at the watershed level in semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso. Three LULC categories (natural vegetation, degradation soils, and cultivated areas) were considered. Seasonal vegetation dynamics were assessed through the monitoring of radiometric indices over the years 2015, 2016 and 2017. The post-harvest period (October-November) was found to be optimal for single-date LULC mapping. Furthermore, LULC maps for 1986, 1999, 2009 and 2017 were produced through a supervised classification of Landsat satellite images. For land change modelling and prediction, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network was calibrated between 1999 and 2009 and validated against 2017 reference map, then used to simulate prediction maps for 2030 and 2050, in conjunction with population growth forecasts. Analysis of LULC changes revealed degradation soils were the major contributor to cultivated areas expansion between 1986 and 2017. Land use maps predicted for 2030 and 2050 indicated an expected increase in cultivated areas of 10.4 % and 22.7 % respectively. These results highlight the strength of the human-environment relationship in the watershed and call for careful planning and conservation actions for a sustainable balance between sustainable agricultural production and natural resources conservation.