Mass Covid-19 Vaccination and Excess Mortality: Direct and Indirect Pathways

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations is unprecedented in pace and scope. Over seven billion doses have been administered to date so aggregate effects should have become apparent. This cross-country panel data study relates weekly estimates of excess mortality to the incidence of Covid-19 vaccinations, for the 32 OECD countries with high frequency excess mortality data available. The correlation between excess mortality and vaccination incidence is decomposed into two pathways: one from vaccination via Covid-attributed deaths to excess mortality and a non-Covid pathway that goes directly from vaccination to excess mortality, with Covid-19 deaths held constant. The non-Covid pathway from vaccination to excess mortality appears at least as large as the Covid pathway, and is the larger of the two pathways if lagged effects are captured. In results broken down by age, the effects are not apparent for the youngest age group who, until recently, were not exposed to Covid-19 vaccination.