Time-Varying Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Background There is a substantial literature on short-term mortality risk factors for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. However, very few studies have examined risk factors for long-term mortality. Methods We analyzed 56,543 veterans who underwent CABG surgery at one of 43 VA cardiac surgery centers between October 1, 1991, and March 30, 2001. Each patient was followed for a minimum of 3.5 months and a maximum of 9.5 years for mortality assessment. The time-varying effects of 22 mortality preoperative risk factors were evaluated using both standard Cox regression models and Cox B-spline regression models. Results Six variables showed significant varying effects over time on mortality after surgery. The effects of previous heart surgery or preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump carried about 5 times and 3 times the risk, respectively, of dying on the first day after surgery, but were not significant during long-term follow-up. Conversely, diabetes had little additional risk immediately after surgery, but the risk increased steadily and doubled at 9.5 years after surgery. Three other risk variables—age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and urgent or emergent status—also had risk changing by 50% to 60% over the next decade. Most of the other 16 risk variables were significantly associated with mortality, but the risk did not vary substantially over time. Conclusions Risk associated with some preoperative variables can change significantly during the decade after surgery, and risk assessments that assume constant risk during the postoperative period may substantially overestimate or underestimate risk at some times. These findings may help clinicians identify appropriate management strategies for patients during the years after CABG surgery, and support an emphasis on noncardiac comorbidities during later postoperative periods.