A cross-sectional study of Bayesian belief network modeling: Risk factors for hepatopancreatic necrosis syndrome of the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) in China

Abstract Hepatopancreatic necrosis syndrome (HPNS) has a severe impact on the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) industry. In this work, a cross-sectional study method was used to assess the association between 55 variables and HPNS. A total of 98 farmers were surveyed, including 34 whose farms had crabs with HPNS (treated as the diseased group) and 64 whose farms did not have crabs with HPNS (treated as the healthy group). The results demonstrated that 11 risk factors had the greatest effects on HPNS, including “Recent pH in the pond”, “Crabs culture method”, “Current incidence of HPNS in nearby farms”, “Single pond area in the farm”, “Depth of pond's water”, “Frequency of water supplement in the farm”, “Frequency of the abamectin use”, “Frequency of switching aerator on in the farm”, “Frequency of disinfectant use”, “Amount of edible animal ingredient”, “How many factories and residential areas are within 500 m”, “Abundance of Cyanobacteria in the pond”, and “Frequency of clearing the ponds”, suggesting that HPNS prevalence might be closely related to water quality and nutrition. The roles of these 11 variables in the occurrence of HPNS were further evaluated, and it was found that there was a greater risk of HPNS occurrence when the following variables coexisted: “>3 factories and residential areas within 500m” + “high pH” + “>1 disinfectant per shell” + “1.3-2 hm2 pond” + “