C.D.S.-Implied Risk of U.S. Delinquency: Implications for the U.S. Debt Ceiling

In this paper, we use a structural credit risk model developed by Geske (1977) and generalized by Chen et al. (2014) to assess the delinquency risk of U.S. Treasury debt implied by U.S. sovereign CDS spreads. We also use the fitted structural model to determine the implied debt ceiling for the Federal Government.