Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses
2018
Abstract. The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with
residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for
insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from
probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic
models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether
variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected
uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a
river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin
outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum
precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall
pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the
effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model
uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within
the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood
peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard
component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability
contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the
conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood
losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF.
Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation
patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river
basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.
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