Heterogeneity in the association between youth unemployment and mental health later in life: a quantile regression analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren.

Objectives An association between youth unemployment and poorer mental health later in life has been found in several countries. Little is known about whether this association is consistent across individuals or differs in strength. We adopt a quantile regression approach to explore heterogeneity in the association between youth unemployment and later mental health along the mental health distribution. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort of secondary schoolchildren in England followed from age 13/14 in 2004 to age 25 in 2015. Setting England, UK. Participants 7707 participants interviewed at age 25. Primary and secondary outcome measures 12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) Likert score, a measure of minor psychiatric morbidity. Results Youth unemployment was related to worse mental health at age 25. The association was several times stronger at deciles of GHQ representing the poorest levels of mental health. This association was only partly attenuated when adjusting for confounding variables and for current employment status. In fully adjusted models not including current employment status, marginal effects at the 50th percentile were 0.73 (95% CI −0.05 to 1.54, b=0.11) points, while marginal effects at the 90th percentile were 3.76 (95% CI 1.82 to 5.83; b=0.58) points. The results were robust to different combinations of control variables. Conclusions There is heterogeneity in the longitudinal association between youth unemployment and mental health, with associations more pronounced at higher levels of psychological ill health. Youth unemployment may signal clinically relevant future psychological problems among some individuals.