Coastal winds drive a recruitment mechanism for estuarine fisheries

Coastal winds transport larval fish onshore or offshore which may contribute to estuarine recruitment, yet our understanding of the mechanism underlying this relationship is limited. Here, we show that larval abundance of coastally spawned species increased with weak to moderate upwelling favourable winds 14 days prior to sampling, reflecting increased nutrient and plankton availability for larval fish. A strong decline in larval abundance was observed following strong upwelling favourable winds while abundance increased with onshore (downwelling favourable) winds, in relation to offshore and onshore wind-driven transport. Subsequently, we show that effects of wind during the spawning period can be detected in lagged estuarine commercial fisheries catch rates of coastally spawned species (lagged by 2 8 years depending on species9 growth rates), representing the same mechanism proposed for larval fish. Upwelling favourable winds in the southeast Australian region have increased since 1850 while onshore winds have decreased, which may reduce larval recruitment to estuaries. Coastal winds are likely an important factor for estuarine recruitment in the east Australian region and future research on the estuarine recruitment of fish should incorporate coastal winds. As global winds are changing, it is important to investigate if this mechanism is applicable to other regions around the world where coastal winds are a key driver of upwelling.