The Changing Spatial Distribution of Montreal Seniors at the Neighbourhood Level: A Trajectory Analysis

Numerous studies in the 1970s and 1980s examined the changing residential geography of seniors in North American metropolises but recent studies are scarce. The goal of this paper is to identify and model neighbourhood ageing trajectories in Montreal over six consecutive census years (1981--2006). To identify these trajectories, we use a statistical method, Latent Class Growth Modelling, applied to location quotients calculated at the census tracts level (neighbourhoods). The 614 neighbourhoods are classified according to eight ageing trajectories. Next, we examine the predictors of these trajectories by introducing two types of variables: variables characterizing residents and the built environment at the beginning of the study period, and variables that consider the evolution of these characteristics over the 25-year time frame. The most important predictors are the proportions in 1981 of persons 45--64-years old, of one-person households and of low-income families, and the variation from 1981 to 2006 in proportions of persons 0--14-years old and of one-person households.