A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

AbstractIn October 2015 Hurricane Patricia stormed through the eastern Pacific, taking its place as the strongest hurricane in recorded history when its intensity reached a record breaking 185 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). Operational models and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast failed to predict Patricia’s unprecedented intensification, provoking questions as to whether such an extreme event can actually be forecast. This study reports on the successful simulation of Patricia using a state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. It was found that high model resolution (Δx ≤ 1 km), vortex initialization, and the parameterization of dissipative heating were key factors in realistically simulating Patricia’s intensity evolution. The simulation was used to investigate Patricia’s environment in terms of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and humidity, under the premise that a simulation able to capture Patricia’s peak intensity would also accurately represent Patric...