Obligate Overdiagnosis Due to Mammographic Screening: A Direct Estimate for U.S. Women

Obligate overdiagnosis occurs in 9% of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and approximately 7% of both invasive breast cancer and all breast cancers in the U.S. mammographic screening population, with screening of women ages 40–49 years (or premenopausal women starting at age 40 years) making a negligible contribution of 0.15% to obligate overdiagnosis of DCIS and a contribution of less than 0.1% to the obligate overdiagnosis rates of invasive breast cancer and all breast cancers.