Selection of Appropriate Forecasting Model for the Grain Price of Long Oryza Sativa

The objective of this study was to construct and select the appropriate forecasting model for the grain price of long Oryza sativa. The data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2005 to March, 2018 of 159 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 153 values from January, 2005 to September, 2017 for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method and combined forecasting method. The second set had 6 values from October, 2017 to March, 2018 for comparing accuracy of forecasted models via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error . The study results indicated that the most accurate method derived from both forecasting methods was Box-Jenkins method and the forecasting model was where the mean absolute percentage error was 3.5815 and the root mean squared error was 439.9647. Keywords :  Oryza sativa , Box-Jenkins Method , combined forecasting method, mean absolute percentage error, root mean squared error.