Predicting the shift of threatened ungulates’ habitats with climate change in Altun Mountain National Nature Reserve of the Northwestern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Climate change has affected the geographic distribution of many species and numerous endemic species with narrow distribution ranges on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China, one of the biodiversity hotspots and critical eco-regions in the world. Altun Mountain National Nature Reserve is one of the most important refuges for the flagship species and threatened endemic ungulates, Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsoni), wild Tibetan donkey (Equus kiang), and wild yak (Bos mutus). We surveyed the distribution of these three species and their forage plants in the nature reserve between 2012 and 2013. Using the Maxent model, we projected the potential distribution of the Tibetan antelope, wild Tibetan donkey, and wild yak and their forage plants based on the four representative concentration pathways set by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for 2070. We generated 36 future model scenarios to assess and reduce the model uncertainties. We found that projected food availability associated with climate niche would be more realistic for ungulates distribution projections under climate change. Our results demonstrated that future climate change would greatly change the habitats of three threatened endemic ungulates and their forage plants. The ranges of climate niche projected for the Tibetan antelope, wild Tibetan donkey, and wild yak would be reduced by 44, 7, and 20%, respectively, with future climate change under representative concentration pathways 2.6 scenario. Among them, the ranges of Tibetan antelope and wild Tibetan donkey would reduce even more under warmer scenarios, but wild yak would be opposite. The projected distribution ranges of forage plants reduced with the climate change in the future. The combined effects of shifting climate niche and food resources would lead to the reduction of habitats for Tibetan antelope, wild Tibetan donkey, and wild yak by 82, 34, and 30% under representative concentration pathways 2.6. However, conditions would be worse for Tibetan antelope and wild Tibetan donkey but better for wild yak under other scenarios. We suggested that future conservation efforts should be focused on improving habitat quality (including food availability) and finding alternative habitats for the three ungulates especially Tibetan antelope and wild Tibetan donkey.