Risk assessment of exported risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia from Hubei Province/ 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期湖北省输出风险评估

Objective To evaluate the exported risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) from Hubei Province and the imported risk in various provinces across China Methods Data of reported NCP cases and Baidu Migration Index in all provinces of the country as of February 14, 2020 were collected The correlation analysis between cumulative number of reported cases and the migration index from Hubei was performed, and the imported risks from Hubei to different provinces across China were further evaluated Results A total of 49 970 confirmed cases were reported nationwide, of which 37 884 were in Hubei Province The average daily migration index from Hubei to other provinces was 312 09, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei were 117 95 and 194 16, respectively The cumulative NCP cases of provinces was positively correlated with the migration index derived from Hubei province, also in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei, with correlation coefficients of 0 84, 0 84, and 0 81 In linear model, population migration from Hubei Province, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei account for 71 2%, 70 1%, and 66 3% of the variation, respectively The period of high exported risk from Hubei occurred before January 27, of which the risks before January 23 mainly came from Wuhan, and then mainly from other cities in Hubei Hunan Province, Henan Province and Guangdong Province ranked the top three in terms of cumulative imported risk (the cumulative risk indices were 58 61, 54 75 and 49 62 respectively) Conclusion The epidemic in each province was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei Province Taking measures such as restricting the migration of population in Hubei Province and strengthening quarantine measures for immigrants from Hubei Province may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic