Machine learning models to replicate large-eddy simulations of air pollutant concentrations along boulevard-type streets

Abstract. Running large-eddy simulations (LES) can be burdensome and computationally too expensive from the application point-of-view for example to support urban planning. In this study, regression models are used to replicate modelled air pollutant concentrations from LES in urban boulevards. We study the performance of regression models and discuss how to detect situations where the models are applied outside their training domain and their outputs cannot be trusted. Regression models from 10 different model families are trained and a cross-validation methodology is used to evaluate their performance and to find the best set of features needed to reproduce the LES outputs. We also test the regression models on an independent testing dataset. Our results suggest that in general, log-linear regression gives the best and most robust performance on new independent data. It clearly outperforms the dummy model which would predict constant concentrations for all locations (mRMSE of 0.76 vs 1.78 of the dummy model). Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is possible to detect concept drift, i.e., situations where the model is applied outside its training domain and a new LES run may be necessary to obtain reliable results. Regression models can be used to replace LES simulations in estimating air pollutant concentrations, unless higher accuracy is needed. In order to have reliable results, it is however important to do the model and feature selection carefully to avoid over-fitting and to use methods to detect the concept drift.