Impact of model and dose uncertainty on model-based selection of oropharyngeal cancer patients for proton therapy

AbstractBackground: Proton therapy is becoming increasingly available, so it is important to apply objective and individualized patient selection to identify those who are expected to benefit most from proton therapy compared to conventional intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Comparative treatment planning using normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) evaluation has recently been proposed. This work investigates the impact of NTCP model and dose uncertainties on model-based patient selection.Material and Methods: We used IMRT and intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatment plans of 78 oropharyngeal cancer patients, which were generated based on automated treatment planning and evaluated based on three published NTCP models. A reduction in NTCP of more than a certain threshold (e.g. 10% lower NTCP) leads to patient selection for IMPT, referred to as ‘nominal’ selection. To simulate the effect of uncertainties in NTCP-model coefficients (based on reported confidence intervals) and p...