Global climate analogues for winegrowing regions in future periods: projections of temperature and precipitation

Background and Aims: Climate is a key consideration for winegrowers, so information regarding projected climate change and the relative global impacts are of great interest. Methods and Results: This climate analogue approach compares and contrasts future to current climate among the regions. Warming was projected for all regions, with greater warming in Northern Hemisphere continental regions and less for Southern Hemisphere and coastal regions. Projections of annual precipitation varied, with the median result from the range of models indicating a wetter climate for higher latitude regions, such as New Zealand, Mosel Valley and North Oregon, and the Chinese region in this study, while Southern European, Australian and South African winegrowing regions had a projected drier climate. The median model result for winter precipitation indicated a projected decrease for sites in Chile, Greece, Australia and Spain, with other European and American sites experiencing a slight increase in winter precipitation. Shandong, China, was the only region in this study projected to experience increased summer precipitation. Conclusion: Future temperature and precipitation projections were made for 23 winegrowing regions worldwide and compared using a climate analogue approach. Significance of the Study: An estimated future temperature and precipitation climatology centred on 2030 and 2070 for 23 winegrowing regions worldwide is made using results from 23 global climate models. Using these climatologies, along with consideration of length of the planning horizon, legal limitations and inter-regional climate variability, climate analogues can be described. For future planning, winegrape cultivars better suited to the projected climate may then be selected from the range currently growing in identified analogue regions. Alternatively, climatically optimum sites can be identified for growing particular cultivars in future conditions.