Assessment of the recent land use change dynamics related to sugarcane expansion and the associated effects on water resources availability

Abstract In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the impacts of the recent sugarcane expansion dynamics on the local water availability of two Brazilian basins (Fazenda Monte Alegre - FMA; Monte Mor - MM), which have experienced different land use change trends. To mitigate the issues concerning SWAT crop growth and water balance, it was performed for both basins a comprehensive model calibration and validation processes. Based on the results for water yields in FMA basin, it was possible to concluded that the sugarcane expansion over annual crops tends to increase stream flow during dry periods and decrease peak flows. In MM basin, the water yields suggest that urban areas expansion increases the stream flow in wet months, which can possibly harm flood vulnerability. In addition to these indications, the calibrated and validated SWAT model produced in this work can also be employed for the assessment of future scenarios with respect to not only land use changes, but also climate changes.