Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume VII : Evaluation of the Compliance Testing Framework for RPA Improvement as Stated in the 2000 Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion.

Using the pre-2000 reach survival probabilities reported in the 2000 FCRPS Biological Opinion (BO) for three selected stocks: yearling and sub-yearling chinook and steelhead, power curves were constructed for each of the two statistical hypothesis tests suggested in the BO. These power calculation results were interpreted in terms of the ability of the statistical tests to correctly identify the true states of recovery (i.e., fail or succeed in fulfilling RPA expectations). The proposed one-sided tests have a moderate to low probability of correctly assessing the true status of the recovery by the years 2005 and 2008. The relatively poor odds of making the correct decision with the BO proposed Tests 1 and 2 suggest alternative decision rules need to be investigated and developed for assessing RPA compliance. Therefore, we propose to immediately examine alternative decision rules that might maximize the likelihood of correct decisions while minimizing the prospect of incorrect decisions. The Bayesian analysis will incorporate scientific/biological knowledge/expertise.