Subsidence in Como historic centre (northern Italy): assessment of building vulnerability combining hydrogeological and stratigraphic features, Cosmo-SkyMed InSAR and damage data

Abstract Como historic centre, located at the SW branch of Lake Como (northern Italy), is prone to subside because of a thick sequence of late Pleistocene to Holocene glacio-lacustrine, palustrine and alluvial sediments in the subsoil. After the 1950s, the combination of natural causes and anthropogenic activities amplified subsidence-induced differential settlements at building foundation depths, resulting in damage on the superstructures. This work presents the first subsidence vulnerability analysis of the historic buildings in Como city centre by combining hydrogeological/stratigraphic properties, in situ damage investigations, and remote sensing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired by Cosmo-SkyMed mission. First, the relationships between local hydrogeological features and vertical displacements retrieved by SAR Interferometry (InSAR) analysis were qualitatively assessed. This highlighted that cumulative vertical InSAR-derived settlements have a stronger linear correlation with the groundwater level rather than the thickness of compressible soil units at the city scale. The largest vertical displacements are located in the NW sector of the city centre and along the shore of Lake Como, where they remark the pre-Roman shoreline. Then, the cause-effect relationships between building damage severity and Subsidence-Related Intensity (SRI) parameters were investigated using a probabilistic approach based on empirical fragility curves. To this aim, two InSAR-derived SRI parameters were tested for both masonry and reinforced concrete buildings: differential settlements and relative rotations. The former resulted to relate better to distinct damage levels in Como historic centre. The analyses performed can contribute to the management of the inestimable architectural and cultural heritage of Como historic centre.