Twin studies of alzheimer disease: II. Some predictions under a genetic model

The twin method for investigating genetic and environmental causes of disease has been applied mostly in early-onset illnesses. Analysis of late-onset disorders requires reexamination of common assumptions about the relation between genetic causes and the degree of concordance expected. This paper considers Alzheimer disease (AD) as an example of a late-onset disorder with putative genetic factors. For argument it employs the strong hypothesis that AD is an autosomal dominant trait with age-dependent expression, as described by a previously published parametric model. That model encompasses 2 principal variants of disease: a rare form with onset in middle life, and a more common late-onset type which is nonetheless eventually fully penetrant. The present work then specifies the probability that, when a given member of a twin pair (the proband) is affected, an identical or fraternal cotwin also shows the disease. Such probability is expressed as a function of the age at onset of the proband and the current age of the pair. Even under strong working assumptions regarding genetic influence, the expected proportion of identical cotwins actually affected with AD will not exceed 40% until the subjects are about 80 years old. Therefore, except in very old subjects, modest twin concordance is a feeble argument against genetic causes, or in favor of exclusively environmental ones. In this sense the interpretation of results of twin studies in AD and other late-onset disorders differs substantially from studies of diseases with early onset. © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc.