Application of a Markov Process as a Method of Modeling the Development Process from the Perspective of the Situational Approach

INTRODUCTIONIn the philosophy of science, two views corresponding to the different types of reality often contradict to each other, taking into account the specifics of the so-called dynamic and statistical regularities. Dynamic regularities are often characterized by univalent and statistical regularities by multivalued probabilistic relations. According to the first of them, the most complex multivalued relations are conditioned by ambiguous, strictly necessary relations (this view prevailed until the twentieth century). According to the second view, phenomenon's are varied, so they are characterized by probabilistic connections that, in principle, are not reducible to a dynamic relationship. As for the dynamic regularities, they are the limiting case of statistical relations and their special significance. Scientific data confirm the presence of multivalued relations existing in reality.A new area of research called nonlinear dynamics (nonlinear science), introduced next difference of modern ideas from the old ones into the problem of the scientific prognosis. It was thought that there are two classes of objects. One of them - determinate Prediction of their behavior can be given at any desired time. Others - stochastic. They are engaged in the theory of probability. It is not possible to speak about deterministic prediction and is only possible to deal with statistical characteristics - mean observations, variances, and probability distributions. In the last twenty years has been shown that there is another important class of objects. Formally, they are deterministic - knowing their current status, it is possible to set what will happen with the system in an arbitrarily distant future. And yet it is possible to predict its behavior only for a limited period of time. Arbitrarily small error in the determination of the initial state of the system increases with time, in the future it is not possible to predict anything, because the system behaves chaotically. Here we again can speak only about statistical description. Such systems have been found in hydrodynamics, physics of lasers, chemical kinetics, plasma physics and astrophysics, geophysics and ecology.Experts in the theory of chaos control, one of the rapidly developing areas of nonlinear dynamics, compare the management of many complex social and technical systems with cycling. These are systems, which are statically unstable, but it is possible to manage their movement. This change in worldview is reflected in the name of one of the works of Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine - "Philosophy of instability".In this series, a large place is occupied by the works associated with predictability and so-called dynamic chaos, which shows impossibility of giving a "long-term prediction" of the behavior of a huge number of even relatively simple mechanical, physical, chemical and ecological systems.METHODSOne of the properties of deterministic systems with chaotic behavior is sensitivity to the initial data. Initial deviations over time increase, minor causes lead to large consequences. This phenomenon is sometimes called the "butterfly effect", title is explained that way: flapping of butterfly wings in an unstable system may eventually cause the storm, change the weather in the vast region.Just in a variety of specific cases, it is clear - the order cannot be separated from the chaos. A chaos, sometimes acts as a super ordering.However lately - especially with regard to the successful development of synergetics - there were allegations that "modern science is no longer a deterministic," and that "instability in some ways replaces determinism." Such statements do not include the following:1. In the case of unstable systems there is no lack of determinism, but other, more complex pattern, a different type of determinism;2. Understanding of the determinism necessary to be preserved, but be modified;3. Should always clearly talk about what sense (meaning) of the term "determinism" is discussed;4. …