P1-10-07: Comparing Breast Cancer Screening Guidelines: A Stage-Survival-Cost Model in a Public Hospital.

Background: Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in the United States, racial disparities in survival persist. Female breast cancer represented the costliest cancer site in 2010 with further increases projected to 2020. Mammography screening guidelines reflect the inherent difficulty in reconciling mortality reduction with potential harms to patients and cost-effectiveness concerns. Controversy still surrounds the 2009 updated USPSTF recommendations, as critics and advocates alike evaluate lives saved, costs, and how best to compare screening strategies. This study simulates USPSTF and ACS guidelines’ effects on stage, 5-year survival, and cost of treatment vs. usual practice in women treated in an urban public hospital. Methods: Charts of 84 patients diagnosed with Stage I-III breast cancer in 2008 were reviewed. Published tumor doubling times guided a retrospective model to predict size at diagnosis by simulated ACS or USPSTF guidelines. AJCC-7 stages were then assigned to produce 3 distributions: 1) actual stage; 2) stage under ACS; and 3) stage under USPSTF. Survival estimates by stage and year from diagnosis were drawn from NCDB statistics and applied to each stage distribution, yielding average predicted survival for the actual and hypothetical scenarios. Finally, treatment costs for women continuously enrolled in Medicaid for 18 months were calculated from merged claims and registry data and similarly applied. Results: Study patients averaged 55 years; 85% were African American. Forty-nine percent were covered by Medicaid and 23% by Medicare. Comparing actual and predicted stages at diagnosis showed significant shifts in stage distribution between all three scenarios (Table 1). ACS guidelines predicted higher survival (87.5% at 5 years) than actual (85.5%; p Discussion: To our knowledge, no studies have compared the impact of alternative screening guidelines on outcomes in a predominantly African-American, public hospital population. These data support continued use of and adherence to ACS screening recommendations for inner city patients to achieve the best survival and the lowest cost. Given the likelihood of patients to be uninsured or covered by federal programs, this study carries implications for public policy and patient education, especially in low-resource programs caring for underserved patients. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2011;71(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-10-07.