Impact of uncertainty in technological cycle on circular economy: Bio-based jet fuel range alkenes and pentanediols production

Abstract In terms of circular economy (CE), the coproduction of biofuels and bio-based chemicals could be a feasible strategy to improve the biorefinery economics. However, this approach is significantly affected by the variation of the techno-economic parameters. Thus, we evaluated the techno-economic feasibility of an integrated strategy through deterministic and stochastic models for the coproduction of biofuels (jet fuel range alkenes (JFA)) and bio-based chemicals (pentanediols and pentane) to identify the impact of uncertainty in technological cycle on the CE action plan. The deterministic analysis estimated the minimum JFA selling price (MJSP) expressed per gasoline gallon equivalents (GGE) and led to the identification of six major techno-economic parameters having a significant impact on the economics. Stochastic analysis was performed based on the Monte Carlo simulation, leading to probabilistic results on the economic feasibility of the integrated strategy, taking into account the uncertainty in the six identified parameters. In five of the six scenarios developed considering each uncertainty, the chances of MJSP being lower than the maximum biofuel price (USD 3.10 GGE−1) in the last three years (2017–2019) were higher than 50% (53.2–88.1%), implying that, despite the uncertainties reflected in the major techno-economic parameters, the integrated strategy could be a risk-averse investment.