Integrating the EBM Model and LTS(A,A,A) Model to Evaluate the Efficiency in the Supply Chain of Packaging Industry in Vietnam

In recent decades, Vietnamese labeling and packaging has been widely recognized as being one of the fastest developing industries in Vietnam, supported by the tremendous demand of domestic production and the exportation of its packaged goods. The emerging packaging technology trends and the participation of foreign direct investment (FDI) companies have led to fierce competition between all packaging enterprises in Vietnam. This paper aims to calculate the productivity performance of 10 packaging companies in Vietnam from the past to the future by combining the additive Holt-Winters (LTS(A,A,A)) model to predict key variables in the financial statement for the next 4 years (2020–2023) and an epsilon-based measure of efficiency (EBM) model of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to define the developing trend, efficiency, and ranking of packaging operations. The empirical results will assist packaging enterprises to identify their positions, suggest feasible solutions to overcome shortcomings and catch up with the global trends, and propose superior partnerships for manufacturers, which have packaging service demands and support investment decisions for investors. Overall, all the enterprises in the packaging industry have high productivity. In particular, SIVICO JSC is identified as the most efficient packaging company in Vietnam, as it continuously maintains the first ranking over the observation time, followed by Agriculture Printing & Packing JSC and Bien Hoa Packaging Company. In the past, Tan Dai Hung Plastic JSC was identified as the most unproductive unit, while in the future term, the inefficient decision-making units (DMUs) are Tan Tien Plastic Packaging JSC, Sai Gon Packaging JSC, Dong A JSC, and PetroVietnam Packaging JSC. The suggestion for incompetent enterprises is changing the value of inputs proportionally to optimize for better performance.