Impact of different transportation planning scenarios on air pollutants, greenhouse gases and heat emission abatement

Abstract The present work aims to estimate future transportation scenarios for the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and test their potential to abate air pollutants, greenhouse gases and heat emissions from vehicular activity. The estimations were performed for 2028 and 2038, using the State Environmental Agency’s official methodology and the fleet evolution was calculated using recent trends. The tested abatement scenarios comprise changes in fuels in light-duty vehicles, buses and trucks, in engine technologies (electric versus internal combustion) and the mode of transportation. Fleet evolution shows a tendency of increase, except for buses. Results show that most pollutant emissions will decrease if no local measure is taken due to fleet renewal and newer vehicles’ lower emission factors. Still, greenhouse gases and vehicular anthropogenic heat emissions will increase, contributing to climate change and a more intense urban heat island. The most impacting future scenarios are increased use of ethanol in light-duty vehicles and a change in transportation mode, from cars to buses, decreasing passenger car activity. Considering greenhouse gases emissions, the only scenario that leads to a decrease is an incentive for the use of ethanol. The substitution of internal combustion vehicles by electric vehicles leads to a decrease in emissions; however, because only a small part of the fleet is being changed to electric, its impact is insufficient. Combining all scenarios leads to the best result and is the only case with a decrease in vehicular anthropogenic heat. The method and results presented here support a range of interdisciplinary studies, such as estimations of economic and health impacts, and are useful for urban planners and the society to test the impact of policies before they are implemented.