Soviet Exploitation of the 'Nuclear Winter' Hypothesis.

Abstract : This study, which is based entirely on open Soviet sources, examines and analyzes Soviet views on and uses made by Soviet scientists of the so-called ''Nuclear Winter'' hypothesis. In particular, the study seeks to ascertain whether Soviet scientists have in fact independently confirmed the TTAPS prediction of a ''Nuclear Winter'' phenomenon or have contributed independent data or scenarios to it. The findings of the study are that the Soviets view the ''Nuclear Winter'' hypothesis as a political and propaganda opportunity to influence Western scientific and public opinion and to restrain U.S. defense programs. Analysis of Soviet publications shows that, in fact, Soviet scientists have made no independent or new contributions to the study of the ''Nuclear Winter'' phenomenon, but have uncritically made use of the worst-case scenarios, parameters, and values published in the Crutzen-Birks (Ambio 1982) and the TTAPS (Science, December 1983) studies, as well as models of atmospheric circulation borrowed from Western sources. Furthermore, current Soviet directives to scientists call for work on the further strengthening of the Soviet Union's military might, while it is also explained that the dire predictions of the possible consequences of a nuclear war in no way diminish the utility of the Soviet civil defense program and the need for its further improvement.