Modelling the future of Boswellia papyrifera population and its frankincense production

Abstract Sustainable production of the aromatic forest product frankincense is at stake due to rapid decline in its resource base. This affects livelihoods of thousands of citizens and several global industries. A system dynamic model approach is used to predict the future population of Boswellia papyrifera trees and its frankincense yield for three decades (2010–2040) in Metema and Abergelle districts in northern Ethiopia. Data from studies on the ecology, distribution, rate of deforestation and participatory future scenario development were put together and analysed using a model platform developed with STELLA. Four alternative scenarios namely Business As Usual (BAU); Low Intervention Scenario (LS), High Intervention Scenario (HS) and Stabilization Scenario (SS) were used. The model predicts 3%, 8% and 37% of the current stem population to exist in 2040 under BAU, LS, HS scenarios, respectively in Metema. Similarly, 11%, 13% and 46% stem density is predicted under BAU, LS and HS, respectively for Abergelle. Test of model sensitivity shows adult mortality is the most serious problem facing the resource. Immediate management intervention should focus on reducing adult tree mortality followed by reducing deforestation. Medium and long term interventions need to focus on how to improve recruitment and afforestation/reforestation of the species.