Prediction of Land Use in Wuding River Basin

Based on the existing land use data in 1990,1995 and 2000 of Wuding River Basin,total data of the 11 yearly land use information during 1990 and 2000 were interpolated with the First-order Markov-chain Model. Then the Optimized First-order Markov-chain Model and the Gray Model(1,1) were used to predict respectively the future land use.The results show that all of the relative errors between simulated data and measured data during 1990 and 2000 are less than 10%,the results are reliable and the methods are reasonable.The future data predicted by both methods are in accordance with the consistent trends of the Wuding River Basin,the effect is good.The results predicted by both these methods can be used as the land use on the Wuding River Basin for the future.