A Tool to Predict the Probability of Summer Severe Weather in East-Central Florida

People and property at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk from severe weather. Strong winds, hail, and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. This is important because central Florida is the thunderstorm capital of the United States and has the highest tornado density in the country, albeit a smaller percentage than the national average of these tornadoes is of significant intensity. The 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) severe weather forecasts are used by managers to determine if they need to schedule activities (such as working on gantries) or protect property (such as a vehicle on a pad). Missed desired lead-time and false-alarm rate statistics show that severe weather in east-central Florida is difficult to forecast during the warm season (May–September). The 45WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a locally tuned tool to predict the probability of warm-season severe weather using a 24-yr climatological database from the 1500 UTC (1100 EDT) CCAFS radiosondes (KXMR). The results indicate the proper use of certain stability indices and parameters based on the late-morning KXMR soundings can improve the forecaster’s ability to identify days with a severe weather threat. The AMU calculated a total severe potential (TSP) by integrating the important parameters for every 1500 UTC sounding and other factors in the 24-yr database and compared the TSP to reported severe weather occurrences on each day with a sounding. Logistic regression was used to convert the TSPs to probability of severe weather as a first guess tool for the 45WS forecasters.