An Automated System of Threat Propagation Using a Horizon of Events Model

Situation Awareness area deals with an ever-growing amount of data to be processed. Decision makers need new tools to swiftly assess a situation, in spite of the huge amount of information to interpret. This reality is even truer in Crisis Analysis such as military and rescue domains. Considering the speed with which information is acquired, it is crucial to propose an efficient decision process. Automated systems are absolutely necessary for decision makers as they enable them to save a valuable time while making decisions quickly in order to solve problems. In this paper, we present an improvement of an automated threat propagation model through a dynamic environment. This model proposes a heat map of the potential threat of an enemy attacking different points. For a human operator, knowing the path and the threat in the upcoming moments rather than the final objective of the enemy is crucial to deploy his sensors or even establish early counter-measures. This work takes place in a military use case based on the NATO military doctrine. The proposed scenario describes an army attacking the borders of a country. This enemy tries to make the most of its troops while they are breaking through the defensive lines. Intelligence services identify specific zones to observe and understand the enemy’s intentions. The model provides a topographical structure that can be read like a graph structure representing the different observable zones that can be observed along with their potential targets.