Effects of Blue Box Policy Reform on Agricultural Production and Trade

This paper evaluates effects of blue box policy reform in Doha negotiation on agricultural production and trade in China and other main members by using ATPSM. The results show that blue box policy reform and reduction on distorting supports may boost China's agricultural production,decrease agricultural imports,and increase agricultural exports. The reform will be beneficial for agricultural producers. Some members with high supports on agricultural such as EU and USA will largely decrease their agricultural production and increase agricultural imports,but their agricultural exports drop unremarkably except EU.