Modeling and Analyzing Cycle Networks in Product-Service System Development using System Dynamics

Abstract The development of product-service systems is affected by a large number of influences. These influences often show a cyclic character. The management of these cyclic influences reveals great potential for improving the product-service system development process. Knowledge about influences and their interdependencies supports the prediction of future changes and is highly valuable for planning. A core challenge is the high degree of dependencies between the different cycles. In this work, we show how to model and analyze cycles with interdependencies using system dynamics by extending a case study of former research. A previously developed cycle network is adjusted and a system dynamics model of the resulting cycles and their interdependencies is implemented. This enables a mathematical analysis and comprehension of the cycles within the network, supporting the understanding of the future behavior of cyclic influences and anticipating their potential effects. We introduce a replacement for the sigmoid function, which is frequently used to model cycles, but not suitable to include dependencies. The results emphasize the feasibility and benefits of a quantitative analysis. Though the model needs to be adjusted for specific use cases, the created network can serve as a framework for analyzing the development process of product-service systems and support deeper understanding of the interdisciplinary interdependencies.