Modelling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036- 2065 and 2071-2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current compositio n rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expresse d by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and compositio n rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21 st century. By the middle of the century only about 35 % of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential di stribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the ce ntury however its distribution area will shift to t he current sessile oak habitats. potential tree species distribution / composition r ate / beech / sessile oak / Turkey oak Kivonat - Harom klimazonalis fafaj hazai potencialis elterjed esenek modellezese jelenlegi es jovbeni klimaban. A bukk, a kocsanytalan tolgy es a csertolgy potenci alis elterjedeset es elegyaranyat vizsgaltuk Magyarorszagon a jelenlegi es a jovben (2036-2065 es 2071-2100) varhato klimatikus korulmenyek kozott. A vizsgalt fafajok j elenlegi elegyaranyanak (az erdreszletben elfoglalt terulet aranya, %) es a klimanak (az Elle nberg index-el kifejezve) az osszefuggeset hasznaltuk a fafajok elterjedesenek modellezesehez. A REMO regionalis klimamodellel tortent szimulacio a bukk es a kocsanytalan tolgy elterjede si teruletenek es elegyaranyanak jelents csokke- neset mutatta a 21. szazad folyaman. A szazad kozep ere a jelenlegi bukk allomanyok 35%-a, a kocsanytalan tolgy allomanyok 75%-a maradna a jelenlegi also elterjedesi hataruk felett. A szazad vegere a bukk szinte teljesen eltnhet Magyarorszag teruleterl es a kocsanytalan tolgy is a magasabb hegyvidekekre es a delnyugati hatar menti teruletre huzodhat vissza. Ellenben a csertolgy jelenlegi allomanyait varhatoan nem erinti szamotteven a klimavaltozas, viszont az elterjedesi terulete a jelenlegi kocsanytalan tolgyes allomanyok helyet fo glalhatja el. potencialis fafaj elterjedes / elegyarany / bukk / kocsanytalan tolgy / csertolgy