Modelo predictivo para la calificación de riesgo de la COAC Jardín Azuayo mediante Lógica Difusa

This research proposes a data prediction model for risk rating in any sector, being applied to the Savings and Credit Cooperative (COAC) Jardin Azuayo in the city of Cuenca-Ecuador, financial institutions are subject to demonstrate their sustainability over time, so the problem of the study denotes that the traditional risk rating structure does not allow these institutions to have an estimated prediction approach, so decisions are not made at the critical time to adopt strategies for timely change. The objective of the research is to apply advanced tools that offer fuzzy logic such as the theory of relative distances of Hamming and coefficient of adequacy with convex weighting, giving reliability in the data from ambiguous information, starting from static structures to dynamic systems, limiting uncertainty, in order to reach the ideal profile, revealing its sustainability and solvent organizational structure in the long term. Within the methodology, the application of these tools is explained in detail, and an attempt is made to predict their rating in the cooperative ranking in a timely manner, so that management can focus its estimation on the critical points and strengths of the entity, since in the most pessimistic option it is rated as Good (BBB+) and in the most optimistic option it reaches a categorization of Excellent (A+), but it still needs to concentrate efforts to reach an ideal level of rating and financial excellence.