Climate suitability as indicative of invasion potential for the most seized bird species in Brazil

Abstract Wildlife trade is considered one of the most significant pathways for the spread of exotic species, as it is present worldwide and crosses abiotic and biotic barriers. In this sense, identifying potential invaders before they are introduced and analyzing the ecological implications of possible escapes of captive species to the wild is an important issue for preventing invasive species impacts. In Brazil, several studies have demonstrated the consequences of wildlife trade on the biogeographic patterns of some species. In this context, using the ten most seized bird species in Brazil, we seek to identify the most suitable areas for invasion of these species in all Brazilian regions, as well as in other South American countries. To this end, we used ecological niche modeling to evaluate region invasibility by the ten assessed species. In addition, natural distribution polygons and actual records were used to evaluate changes in the distribution ranges of the evaluated species. Overall, ‘Red-cowled Cardinal’, ‘Saffron Finch’, ‘Yellow-bellied Seedeater’ and ‘Rufous-collared Sparrow’ reached the highest rate of invasion in susceptible areas. Proportionally, French Guiana, Guyana and Suriname showed the highest amount of invasion potential areas in South America overall. Ecuador and Bolivia reached the highest percentage of suitable areas for four or more species. Regarding Brazil, all regions were suitable for invasion by at least three of the ten analyzed species, whereas the north and midwest were the most vulnerable regions. We discuss the need to consider the animal trade as one of the main means to promote organism translocation and cause alterations in the biogeographical patterns of several species.