Ukraine's quest for independence: The fuel factor

SINCE THE PROCLAMATION OF Ukraine's independence in December 1991 Western attention has been focused mainly on the military and political problems attendant on the emergence of a new, populous and potentially powerful state in southeastern Europe. Most prominent among them have been the issues of Ukraine's nuclear status and its widely publicised friction with Russia over the division of the Black Sea fleet as well as the future of Sevastopol' and of the entire Crimean peninsula. Generally lost in the excitement generated by the military and political issues has been the condition of the Ukrainian economy, which has regressed from bad to worse and whose possible collapse could lead to the breakdown of the social order and, ultimately, to the loss of independence. The current woes of the Ukrainian economy can be attributed to two separate but interrelated causes: (1) a stubborn refusal to introduce meaningful reforms; and (2) the lack of fuel resources, necessary to power large segments of the Ukrainian economy. This study addresses mainly the second problem or, more precisely, Kyiv's efforts to secure the required fuel from its traditional suppliers-Russia and Turkmenistan-as well as from the Middle East, primarily Iran.