Long-term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in Danish municipalities

Abstract To assess future challenges for the energy system, the transmission - and distribution grids, long-term projections of the spatial distribution of electricity consumption with an hourly resolution is important. Based on 2015 data from hourly meters in Denmark, we develop a model that converts national projections of the annual electricity consumption to projections of the hourly consumption in Danish municipalities. Due to different weights and consumption profiles for categories of customers, both the level and the hourly consumption profile differ between municipalities; also future changes will differ. To illustrate future changes, the latest official projection by the Danish Transmission System Operator is used, showing a moderate increase in classic consumption and a considerable increase in total consumption due to electrification of the heating and transport sectors. In addition, the projection includes a number of large datacentres. Electric vehicles and individual heat pumps will determine the future consumption profile in municipalities, while large datacentres mainly determine the level of consumption at specific nodes in the grid. That is, electric vehicles and heat pumps challenge both the energy system, the transmission and the local distribution grids, while large datacentres mainly challenge the energy system and specific nodes in the overall transmission grid.