Modelling Potential Biophysical Impacts of Climate Change in the Atlantic Forest: Closing the Gap to Identify Vulnerabilities in Brazil

The lack of information on the climate-related vulnerability of territories, populations, and productive sectors in Brazil—and the ecosystems that they are dependent upon—is a serious constraint to identifying possible strategies for local and regional adaptation to climate change. In order to mainstream adaptation efforts in sectors’ planning and budget demands, the existing knowledge gap between what climate models project and what impacts this might have at the local level must be filled. This is particularly significant in the Atlantic Forest region, where over 70% of Brazil’s population currently resides. In the context of the Biodiversity and Climate Change project in the Atlantic Rainforest, this article focusses on the main results of a spatially explicit climate-impact model, which forecasts trends in soil humidity, natural vegetation, agro-climatic zoning, erosion, flooding, landslides, and animal disease vectors, according to optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios until 2100. This study is intended as an advisory tool to support the definition of robust and proactive adaptation actions for several sectors in Brazil, framed into the new National Adaptation Plan.