Restrições ao crescimento econômico brasileiro : análise de fatores de oferta e de demanda no período de 1996 a 2016.

This article investigates restrictions on Brazilian economic growth through supply and demand perspectives between 1996 and 2016. The first restriction concerns the aggregate demand: exports of manufactured goods. In this case, we use the Thirlwall model (1979) and estimate a function relative to this component. Through VEC we obtain long-term relations of the exchange rate and the interest rate with exports. Estimates suggest that an appreciated exchange rate and a high interest rate hinder the expansion of manufactured goods. The second restriction is from the supply side: physical capital stock. To analyze it, we use the Solow model (1956), estimating an investment function in physical capital. Also through the VEC we obtain long-term relationships that point to the negative effect of the payment of interest of the public debt on the investment. We conclude that these constraints are structural and that even if exchange and monetary policies are managed to overcome such constraints, the effects would only be perceived in the long run.